Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-13 2.080769 2.528290 3.033601 3.644073 4.359112 5.167515 6.147933
2025-04-20 1.511190 2.091698 2.821536 3.796486 5.053377 6.606715 8.657440
2025-04-27 1.148476 1.779011 2.647493 3.908175 5.663917 7.991028 11.270470
2025-05-04 0.929958 1.589017 2.570773 4.098845 6.366368 9.546073 14.264679
2025-05-11 0.726496 1.362729 2.382715 4.075394 6.735101 10.655984 16.743497
2025-05-18 0.553124 1.136826 2.141428 3.913089 6.849443 11.381543 18.712384
2025-05-25 0.419264 0.942796 1.908084 3.711997 6.855203 11.917035 20.417322
2025-06-01 0.341893 0.833933 1.798647 3.695564 7.146973 12.910431 22.900394
2025-06-08 0.285514 0.752346 1.721951 3.720281 7.502629 14.028883 25.666064
2025-06-15 0.236558 0.673311 1.633505 3.705019 7.777402 15.026187 28.301635
2025-06-22 0.183499 0.568844 1.470313 3.513311 7.694938 15.386092 29.870150
2025-06-29 0.152717 0.510945 1.396155 3.490065 7.926993 16.318382 32.497672
2025-07-06 0.125756 0.455937 1.319652 3.454471 8.139931 17.253233 35.242451
2025-07-13 0.115019 0.444801 1.347346 3.656312 8.864161 19.214499 40.016468
2025-07-20 0.102182 0.423104 1.343965 3.785385 9.448467 20.954008 44.503502
2025-07-27 0.093451 0.412017 1.366273 3.978729 10.191809 23.063159 49.835055
2025-08-03 0.078507 0.373893 1.306150 3.958708 10.457649 24.235143 53.438889
2025-08-10 0.062218 0.323783 1.199613 3.801459 10.389663 24.714635 55.712564
2025-08-17 0.048196 0.275743 1.086599 3.605736 10.203986 24.925635 57.454827
2025-08-24 0.040580 0.251356 1.042044 3.589835 10.447834 26.068404 61.163263
2025-08-31 0.034885 0.233060 1.013250 3.613978 10.792867 27.456634 65.467625
2025-09-07 0.029435 0.213081 0.973536 3.599112 11.036294 28.636124 69.405781
2025-09-14 0.022639 0.181577 0.882879 3.412216 10.808238 28.728437 71.025165